What Crimea means today (Geopolitically speaking). By Gabriele Parachini 25th March 2014

The extent and relevance of geography in international politics is such a traditional source of debate for scholars, professionals, students and the public that the most recent contribution for its case could not have been better illustrated by Robert D. Kaplan in his analysis “Crimea: The Revenge of Geography?” published on Stratfor on March the 12th. The author, using arguments and examples drawn from history, explains how geography has always mattered in the struggle of countries for space and resources.

It is therefore another question to gauge the different degrees by which geography influences international political issues before actual crisis erupt, and, as the title implies referring to the current crisis in Ukraine, it becomes a legitimate one evaluating to what extent the events that have taken and are still taking place in Crimea and other parts of Ukraine are to be attributed to geopolitical or other causes.

Russia’s geopolitical considerations, as we watch - even from far - at a Black Sea map, immediately seem to strike us as the major and most obvious drive behind recent events. The historical meaning of Crimea for the Russians i.e. providing the crucial access to Mediterranean waters and, especially, the already ongoing Russian military presence in Crimea and other Ukrainian regions by use of airfields, shipyards and barracks all appear to be shaping Russia’s political moves up to this date.

On the other side there stand Ukraine’s geopolitical imperatives. Losing Crimea will be devastating for Kiev under whatever government in office and threatening the very existence of the country. The geographical shape of the peninsula provides itself with a natural-floating harboring site for naval and air forces intercepting incoming traffic from the Bosporus and through the Strait of Kerch. Crimea is also vital to Ukraine as the Black Sea offers the sole access to seas and oceans to Ukrainian trade and to Kiev’s naval forces.

Controlling Crimea today is as strategic to Ukraine as it is tactical to Russia. The Russians are already expanding facilities for the future basing of the Black Sea Fleet in the - it has to be said - not as well protected bay of Novorossiysk adjacent the Black Sea. Moving to Novorossiysk will not prevent Russian naval and air forces from acceding and exercising in and around the Bosporus, the Dardanelles and further South in the Mediterranean, though it expose them to deal with a more hostile territory.

In this intricate scenario, where perceptions and misperceptions of each other’s intentions and interests also account for an important part, it seems to us of fundamental importance focus the attention on what will be the moves of the actors already involved in the contention (the United States, the EU, Russia and Ukraine) and whether others may be brought into the arena.